Winning BFCM 2025: Lessons from Last Year’s Data

Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) continue to be the biggest shopping moments of the year—but winning them requires more than just big discounts. At Rockerbox, we analyzed data across hundreds of brands to understand what drove performance in 2024, and how those lessons can be applied to 2025.

The short answer? The best-performing brands were the ones that:

Balanced both paid and owned channels
Started early to prime their audiences
Leaned into prospecting pre-holiday and retention during holiday
Found the right balance between ROAS efficiency and gross profit growth

Let’s dig in.

Paid vs. Owned: Don’t Choose, Do Both

It’s tempting to put all the focus on paid channels during BFCM. But last year’s data shows that would be a mistake. While paid channels drove substantial gross profit increases, owned channels like email, SMS, organic search, and organic social saw slightly larger increases.

Gross profit growth by attributed channel type
BFCM 2024 vs. September & October 2024

Takeaway: Brands that built out strong owned campaigns (site updates, email/SMS cadences, organic social pushes) were able to amplify the lift from paid promotions and capture more total demand.

Timing Matters: Start Early

The earlier brands started priming audiences, the bigger the lift they saw in gross profit during BFCM. That doesn’t mean you need to launch aggressive discounts in October—but building consideration well in advance pays off once promos hit.

Early spend in CTV and upper-funnel social builds awareness.
Closer to BFCM, leaning into lower-funnel social and retargeting drives conversions.

Increase in BFCM gross profit vs. Sept baseline, by BFCM campaign start date

Prospecting vs. Retention: Right Tactic, Right Time

Prospecting channels (non-brand search, PMAX prospecting, awareness campaigns) work best in the lead-up. Retention channels (brand search, remarketing, retargeting, PMAX retention) dominate during the promo window itself.

In fact, retention channels delivered substantially better incremental ROAS during BFCM compared to prospecting.

Incremental ROAS
September and October 2024 compared to BFCM 2024

Takeaway: Don’t shut off prospecting, but recognize that the real efficiency spike happens in retention once the deals drop.

The Spend Curve: Efficiency vs. Scale

Spend rose gradually throughout November, while gross profit spiked during the BFCM weekend itself. Gross profit increased faster than spend, demonstrating the power of strong promotional offers to unlock organic demand.

2024 spend and gross profit trends

Interestingly, brands that increased spend the most also saw the biggest total gross profit lift. But they didn’t necessarily see the highest ROAS.

To maximize ROAS: Spend like the 2nd quartile (steady but moderate).
To maximize total gross profit: Spend like the 4th quartile (go bigger).

Spend and gross profit growth by spend increase quartile
BFCM 2024 vs. September & October 2024

Takeaway: Decide early whether your goal is efficiency (ROAS) or scale (gross profit)—and align your spend accordingly.

Category Spotlight: Cosmetics & Beauty

Beauty brands experienced the same trends as the average brand—but amplified.

Spend increased gradually before BFCM.
Gross profit spiked dramatically during the promo window.
Starting campaigns earlier led to the largest gross profit gains.

2024 spend and gross profit trends

The vertical also saw sharper ROAS challenges in prospecting. Many prospecting channels delivered below a 1.0 ROAS during BFCM, while retention strategies over-performed.

Incremental ROAS
September 2024 compared to BFCM 2024

Starting earlier also delivered the largest beauty profit gains during BFCM.

Increase in BFCM gross profit vs. September, by campaign start date

Final Takeaways for BFCM 2025

Balance both paid and owned. Email, SMS, and organic channels will multiply your paid impact.
Prime audiences early. Awareness in October pays dividends in November.
Match tactics to timing. Prospecting before BFCM, retention during BFCM.
Know your goal. Chasing efficiency vs. chasing scale requires different spend strategies.
Lean on your category insights. Verticals like beauty see even bigger swings, so planning ahead matters.

BFCM is not just about the four-day weekend—it’s about how you prepare in the weeks leading up and how you balance efficiency with growth. The brands that plan with intention will capture the biggest gains.